The Importance of Starting Pitching

After starting the season 10-30, the Astros are 14-14 in their last 28 games. That's .500 baseball, folks. And if you want to know why, look no further than the Astros starting pitching during that stretch:

	Opponent	W/L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	QS
Keuchel	5/15 @ Detroit	ND	5 2/3	7	5	4	2	3
Lyles	5/17 @ Pittsburgh	ND	5	4	2	1	2	4
Bedard	5/18 @ Pittsburgh	ND	6	7	2	2	0	3	Y
Harrell	5/19 @ Pittsburgh	L	7	4	1	1	1	3	Y
Keuchel	5/20 vs Kansas City	W	6 2/3	9	4	4	4	6
Norris	5/21 vs Kansas City	ND	6	5	0	0	2	2	Y
Lyles	5/22 vs Kansas City	W	6	6	1	1	1	3	Y
Bedard	5/24 vs Oakland	ND	5	4	2	2	5	4
Harrell	5/25 vs Oakland	L	1 2/3	6	6	6	3	1
Keuchel	5/26 vs Oakland	L	6	10	6	6	1	4
Norris	5/27 vs Colorado	ND	7	8	2	2	3	3	Y
Lyles	5/28 vs Colorado	ND	7	6	1	1	3	3	Y
Bedard	5/29 @ Colorado	ND	6	7	2	2	3	4	Y
Harrell	5/30 @ Colorado	W	5 2/3	8	4	3	4	2
Keuchel	5/31 @ LA Angels	W	7	6	2	2	0	4	Y
Norris	6/1 @ LA Angels	W	6	4	0	0	3	6	Y
Lyles	6/2 @ LA Angels	W	5 2/3	6	2	2	1	5
Bedard	6/3 @ LA Angels	W	7	5	1	1	1	2	Y
Harrell	6/4 vs Baltimore	L	7	5	2	1	0	6	Y
Keuchel	6/5 vs Baltimore	W	6	5	1	1	2	3	Y
Norris	6/6 vs Baltimore	L	7	9	3	3	1	7	Y
Lyles	6/7 @ Kansas City	ND	7	6	2	2	1	3	Y
Bedard	6/8 @ Kansas City	L	4 2/3	8	6	6	3	2
Harrell	6/9 @ Kansas City	ND	7	2	0	0	3	1	Y
Keuchel	6/10 @ Seattle	L	6	7	2	1	0	6	Y
Norris	6/11 @ Seattle	L	7	5	3	3	1	6	Y
Lyles	6/12 @ Seattle	ND	7	3	0	0	2	10	Y
Bedard	6/14 vs ChiSox	W	6	3	1	0	3	6	Y

In summary, over the last 28 games, the Astros rotation - much maligned in the early part of the season - is 9-8 with an ERA of 3.00, a WHIP of 1.29, and 19 quality starts. Compare that to just 10 quality starts in Houston's first 40 games. Only 5 times has a Houston starter allowed more than 3 earned runs in a game, and three of those starts were by Dallas Keuchel, two of which the Astros won anyways. Here's a breakdown of each pitcher over the recent stretch:

Pitcher Starts/Quality W/L IP H R ER BB SO ERA WHIP Lyles 6/4 2-0 37 2/3 31 8 7 10 28 1.67 1.09 Norris 5/5 1-2 33 31 8 8 10 24 2.18 1.24 Bedard 6/4 2-1 34 2/3 34 14 13 15 21 3.38 1.41 Harrell 5/3 1-3 28 1/3 25 13 11 11 13 3.49 1.27 Keuchel 6/3 3-2 37 1/3 44 20 18 9 26 4.34 1.42

Every single pitcher is pitching better. Want to see ERA's before this recent stretch of good pitching?

Lyles - Before: 8.36, After: 3.48
Norris - Before: 4.32, After: 3.47
Bedard - Before: 6.67, After: 4.82
Harrell - Before: 5.11, After: 4.52
Keuchel - Before: 4.43, After: 4.37

With a little more help from the bullpen and some more support from the offense, that's a pretty respectable rotation. Don't believe me? The Oakland A's are 41-28 on the year. Here are the ERAs and records of their top 5 starters:

Tommy Milone - 6-6, 3.61
Jarrod Parker - 5-6, 4.45
A.J. Griffin - 5-5, 3.78
Bartolo Colon - 8-2, 2.92
Dan Straily - 4-2, 4.45

Believe it or not, the Astros are getting on the right track.

Starting Pitcher the Key to Recent Turnaround

The Astros are playing some of their best baseball of the season going 4-4 in their last 8 games. Those 4 losses include the Jimmy Paredes game, a 1-0 loss, the Bud Norris injury/bullpen meltdown game, and last night's 3-run homer to Astro-killer Chris Young. A couple of balls bounce differently, and maybe Houston's 7-1, but that's not really what I want to talk about. Over the past 8 games, every Astros starter has made it at least 5 innings, and the only Astros starter to give up more than 2 runs was Dallas Keuchel, and Houston won both of those games. Houston's Starting Pitching has an ERA of 2.85 over the past 8 and a big part of that has been the improved play from Jordan Lyles and Erik Bedard. If Houston can continue to get this type of pitching up and down the rotation, there's no way this team doesn't win 60 games. The bullpen's going to need to continue to come along, but let's face it: we've got a long of young guys out there, and there are going to be growing pains. Here's a rundown of our starting pitching as of late:

Date	Opp	Result	Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
5/15/13	@Tigers	W 7-5	Keuchel	5 2/3	7	5	4	2	3
5/17/13	@Pirates	L 5-4	Lyles	5	4	2	1	2	4
5/18/13	@Pirates	W 4-2 (11)	Bedard	6	7	2	2	0	3
5/19/13	@Pirates	L 1-0	Harrell	7	4	1	1	1	3
5/20/13	vsRoyals	W 6-5	Keuchel	6 2/3	9	4	4	4	6
5/21/13	vsRoyals	L 7-3	Norris	6	5	0	0	2	2
5/22/13	vsRoyals	W 3-1	Lyles	6	6	1	1	1	3
5/24/13	vsAthletics	L 6-5	Bedard	5	4	2	2	5	4
TOTAL		4-4		47 1/3	46	17	15	17	28
				ERA	2.85
				WHIP	1.33

10 Reasons to be Optimistic Even Though We Lost the Last Two Games:

1) Chris Carter has struck out just 4 times in his last 7 games after striking out 49 times in his first 28. During this recent stretch, Carter is 6 for 18 with 5 runs batted in.

2) Philip Humber pitched 1 1/3 innings out of the bullpen on Thursday night and didn't allow a hit while fanning 3 and walking one. Maybe a move to the pen is just what he needs to turn things around.

3) Trevor Crowe, not known for his power, hit his first home run as an Astro last night off of Alexi Ogando.

4) When Houston faced Ogando in April he fanned 10 hitters in 6 1/3 shutout innings. Last night he didn't make it through six innings and fanned only 3. That, my friends, is progress.

5) Dallas Keuchel turned in a quality start in his first appearance in the Astros rotation this year allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings. Yeah, we didn't get a win, but if you're a realist, you recognize this year isn't about wins, it's about evaluating talent. Keuchel has been a pleasant surprise this year in whatever role he's been asked to fill and could help bolster a shaky rotation if he continues to pitch well.

6) Losing close games is frustrating, but having close games is a step in the right direction. If you think about it, the Astros could have very easily gone 6-2 over the last 8 games. Yeah, we're only 2-6 during that stretch, but that's about learning how to win more than it is learning to play good baseball. We're getting there, and that's reason to be excited.

7) We're two weeks into May and Brandon Barnes is still hitting .327 with an on base percentage of .413. What's more, he's been able to sustain his hot bat despite not playing every day.

8) A day after making an uncharacteristic 3 errors at third, Matty Dominguez was back to his old self again last night. Always nice to see young players with a bad short term memory and able to shake things like that off.

9) Marwin Gonzalez has put together back-to-back multi-hit games after enduring a 1 for 24 slide raising his average back up to .264. Put that together with Ronny Cedeno's .314 clip and suddenly the shortstop position has become fairly productive offensively for us.

10) Lucas Harrell struggled with his control walking 6 in 5 innings on Thursday night, but allowed just 1 earned run. I'd still like to see him work through his control issues, but it was nice to see him battle through a tough lineup despite not having his best stuff.

Another Series Slips Away - Changes on the Horizon

The Astros overcame an early 4-0 deficit, but fell short in the end, losing to the Yankees 5-4. As the Astros now prepare for Detroit, they'll do it with some new, albeit familiar faces, as Jordan Lyles and Dallas Keuchel are back up, and Brad Peacock and Rhiner Cruz are bound for Oklahoma City (no real surprises there). Some more thoughts on the loss:

1) Jason Castro is really getting things going at the plate. With two more doubles last night, he now has 10, and if you take away that 0/11 in the Rangers series, he's hitting .325 (25/77) on the year. He's really taken to the 3-hole too which is only going to help the guy hitting ahead of him (Jose Altuve). Speaking of Altuve, he's just a machine. The Pocket Jesus is hitting .336 now and has 38 hits to go along with a team high 14 runs batted in.

2) Over his last 4 games, Carlos Pena is 7 for 14 with 3 of his team high 16 walks. Could he be starting to get things going? His average is still a pedestrian .234, but that's a heck of a lot better than the .180 range he was living in last week. I'd still like to see more power from him though. Two homers in 28 games just isn't going to cut it.

3) Brandon Barnes continues to do little things that are going to keep him in the lineup. He beat out a double play ball to drive in a run, got a bunt down, and even started a failed 9th inning rally with a leadoff single off of Mariano Rivera. This kid is making it really hard on Bo Porter which is every manager's dream.

4) Speaking of the failed 9th inning rally, how many games are we going to endure just ZERO luck at all. Barnes gets a big jump, Dominguez hits into a line drive double play. We're going to lose enough games just on talent, we don't need any help from the baseball Gods.

5) Erik Bedard endured another subpar start lasting just 4 innings and allowing 4 runs on 6 hits to go along with 4 walks. He also gave up a home run to Ben Francisco (former Astro) who with the home run is now hitting .133 on the year. It's getting harder to defend the guy, so hopefully he figures it out soon. With 4 long relievers on the Astros roster right now (Keuchel, Clemens, Cisnero, Blackley) and Josh Fields on the mend, Bedard has to be next in line to get sent down or let go. I really want the guy to succeed and he's shown glimpses of what he can do, it's just got to be more consistent and more efficient. That said, time is running out for him to prove himself.

6) Big time pitching from Hector Ambriz last night who pitched his way out of a bases loaded, one out jam in the 8th without allowing a run to keep Houston in the game. That very easily could have turned into a big inning, and it was nice to see one of our relievers pitch their way out of trouble and getting some big strikeouts when they needed to.

7) Wesley Wright has really turned into a nice find. A Rule 5 Draft Pick back in 2008, it was touch and go for a while, but he's followed a solid 2012 and a good start to 2013. After last night's outing, Wright has now put together 7 straight scoreless outings spanning 9 innings.

Humber Falls to 0-6 in Loss

Missed opportunities early and a failed rally late resulted in a 7-4 loss for the Astros last night. The loss dropped righty Philip Humber to 0-6 on the year, although it was a much better result for him than his previous 2 starts. Some more notes on last night's game:

1) Houston had 1st and 3rd with one out in the first, bases loaded with two outs in the second, and first and second with none out in the third, and couldn't push a run across. That's just not a recipe for winning baseball. Eventually Hiroki Kuroda got into a groove, and the Yankees offense pushed some runs across, and before you knew it, the game was over. The Astros did rally scoring twice in the 8th and twice more in the 9th, but it's all about capitalizing on opportunities early (see Game 1 in this series)  and getting teams on the ropes. We did not do that last night.

2) Philip Humber gave up 9 hits in 6 innings, but 8 of them were singles. He did have four wild pitches though, two of which led to runs. I don't know if he was trying to be like his teammate Rick Ankiel, or if Jason Castro was just having an off night, or if Humber's stuff was just moving all over the place (the 9 hits would suggest otherwise), but that's a lot. Overall, Humber didn't pitch terrible, and this was a big improvement over his previous outings, so I think his spot in the rotation continues to be safe for the time being, despite calls from the armchair GMs for his head.

3) Rex Robbie Grossman reached base 3 more times yesterday drawing a pair of walks and then singling in the 9th. Hopefully he's starting to get more comfortable at the plate even though his average (.138) isn't really reflecting that yet. 

4) Trogdor the Bombinator (Chris Carter for those of you who don't regularly follow the blog) blasted a 2-run homer in the 8th inning off of David Roberton to start to bring the Astros back into the game. The homer was Carter's team-best sixth of the year and he remains tied with Jose Altuve for the team lead in rbis with 14. Carter's homer was his only hit of the night, but it was clutch, and he showed that he has big time power to all fields, driving that ball out to right.

5) The Peacock did not fly last night. After a solid start to the evening coming on in relief for Wesley Wright, the wheels came off in this second inning of work. All three hitters he faced in the 8th reached base safely, and all of them came around to score. His ERA on the year is now 9.41, and with the Astros announcing today that they're ready to call up both Jordan Lyles and Dallas Keuchel, you have to think he's on his way to Oklahoma City. I think the kid has a lot of potential, but when things start to go bad for him, they just seem to snowball and he loses all confidence. Hopefully he can get back on track and become the guy we hoped he'd be when we traded for him.

6) I have no idea who the two guys are that are going down for Keuchel and Lyles. I think it's pretty easy to say that Peacock is one, but the second one? Veras is safe. Wright is safe. And I don't know how you could justify sending down Cisnero or Clemens, both who have been very good. Travis Blackley just keeps improving so I think he's in the clear. So all that leaves are Hector Ambriz and Rhiner Cruz. And Ambriz leads the team in holds with 3. So to me that means it's going to be Rhiner. But if that's the case, who gets sent down when Josh Fields finally comes back? Keuchel again? Lyles? Bedard? It'll be interesting see where we go with this.

Down on the Farm - 4/26/13

AAA - Oklahoma City 2 New Orleans 0

In a rain-shortened affair, the RedHawks (11-10) shut out the Zephyrs 2-0 behind the solid pitching of Dallas Keuchel. In his first AAA appearance of the season, Keuchel threw 6 shutout innings allowing just three hits while striking out five. He did not walk a batter. Marc Krauss picked up his 20th rbi of the season, and Jimmy Paredes had two more hits to raise his average up to .363 to lead the offense. Andrew Simunic added an rbi on a sacrifice fly.

AA - Corpus Christi 4 Frisco 2

Domingo Santana homered in his first game back from an injury to lead the Hooks (12-9) to a 4-2 win over the RoughRiders. The Hooks got solid starting pitching from Carlos Quevedo who threw 5 shutout innings in his first start of the season. Erik Castro added his first home run of the season and Jason Stoffel got the final out in the 9th inning to earn his 5th save of the year.

Advanced A - Lancaster 3 Inland Empire 2

Matt Duffy's bases clearing 3-run double in the bottom of the 7th gave the JetHawks a come-from-behind victory over the Inland Empire 66ers by a score of 3-2. Nolan Fontana reached based 4 times (2 singles, 2 walks) and raised his average to .387 on the year, and Telvin Nash extended his hitting streak to 4 since joining the JetHawks to lead the offense. The JetHawks managed only 6 hits in the game. Mike Foltynewicz earned his first win of the year with 4 shutout innings in relief. He fanned 6.

Low A - Quad Cities 4 Lansing 0

Vincent Velasquez and Joe Bircher combined on a 5-hit shutout as the River Bandits (12-7) defeated the Lugnuts 4-0. Velasquez struck out 8 in 5 innings to improve to 3-0 while lowering his ERA to 1.17 on the year. Teoscar Hernandez had 2 hits, stole 2 bases and scored 2 runs, Roberto Pena went 3 for 3, and Terrell Joyce hit his first homer of the year to lead the offense. Bircher earned his second save of the year with 4 scoreless innings of relief.

Cisnero Debut a Success, but That's About It

The losses are starting to pile up again, but the truth is, there's not a lot of shame in getting shut down by King Felix. It would've been nicer to see Peacock go a little deeper into the game, but short outings are apparently all the rage right now. At least we got a great outing from Jose Cisnero in his debut. Some more thoughts on last night's game:

1) Brad Peacock had his worst outing of the season allowing 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings skyrocketing his ERA up to 7.50. After striking out 7 his last time out, Peacock managed just 1 strikeout last night, and once again just threw too many pitches. Unfortunately, no one else is pitching any better right now, so it's hard to justify making any sort of move.

2) Jose Cisnero was terrific last night in relief logging 3 2/3 scoreless innings in his Major League debut. He becomes the latest in a long line of long relievers that have appeared on the Astros roster this year: Edgar Gonzalez, Travis Blackley, Dallas Keuchel, Paul Clemens, Brett Oberholtzer, and now Cisnero. If nothing else, Cisnero has earned the right to stick around a bit. The kid has pretty good stuff, so many he can help out sooner than expected. I just wish we could have a game where our best player wasn't one of our long relievers.

3) All or Nothing Ankiel crushed another homer last night raising his average up to .237. Ankiel is now  9 for 38 with 24 strikeouts. He has two singles, two doubles and five home runs for a team high 11 runs batted in. When he puts the ball in play, he's batting .643. Simply ridiculous. Even more ridiculous is that he still hasn't drawn a walk in 2013.

4) Jose Veras tossed a scoreless inning in relief last night, but once again allowed a hit so he's now gone 8 straight outings without retiring the side in order. On the plus side, he has gone 3 straight appearances without allowing a run after blowing that save against Albert Pujols and the Angels.

5) Jason Castro had his 3rd multi-hit performance in the last 4 games with a pair of doubles and a walk raising his average up to .242. Unfortunately, the walk was just his 2nd of the year which is way down from his walk rate a year ago. He's not the only one this applies to on this roster, but Astro hitters need to work more counts, and draw more walks. Cutting down on the strikeouts would be nice too. Yes, I'm talking about you, Chris Carter. Carter picked up a hat trick last night giving him 31 strikeouts in 70 at bats this season. No good.

6) Jose Altuve went 1 for 4 to extend his hitting streak to 8 games and he's now hitting .377 on the year. The only other Astro hitting over .300 right now is reserve outfielder Brandon Barnes (.333 - 8/24).

Oberholtzer Gets The Call, Keuchel Sent Back to AAA

When your bullpen pitches 8 2/3 innings in a night game with a day game to follow, sometimes you just have to make a move. I think that's what this is seeing as Houston used all 3 of its long relievers in yesterday's blowout, and starter Erik Bedard has yet to pitch more than 4 innings in a game this season. The only relievers Houston didn't use yesterday are Wesley Wright, Hector Ambriz and Jose Veras, and while Wright and Ambriz CAN be extended, that doesn't exactly set the pen up for success moving forward. Enter Oberholtzer, who has made three starts for the RedHawks this season, allowing at least 5 runs in all of them. On the year he's allowed 18 runs (13 earned) in 12 1/3 innings, hardly awe inspiring numbers. That said, the 23 year old lefty pitched pretty well this spring (3.86 ERA in 7 innings) and had a solid showing between AA and AAA in 2012 (10-10, 166 2/3 IP, 137 K, 4.37 ERA). Besides, he's really just here to eat some innings. If Bedard gets shelled or can't go deep into the ballgame, someone's going to have to go out there and make pitches to save the rest of the bullpen. If he does awesome, great! But there really isn't too much pressure on him in this audition. As for Keuchel, it was a numbers game. Someone had to get sent down to make room.

2005-Present:
Year	Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
2008	BRA	GCL	4	1	2.89	10	0	0	0	0	37.1	34	16	12	1	10	32	1.47	.241
2008	Minors		4	1	2.89	10	0	0	0	0	37.1	34	16	12	1	10	32	1.47	.241
2009	DAN	APP	6	2	2.01	12	12	1	0	0	67.0	46	17	15	1	6	56	1.29	.191
2009	Minors		6	2	2.01	12	12	1	0	0	67.0	46	17	15	1	6	56	1.29	.191
2010	ROM	SAL	0	2	1.96	4	4	0	0	0	23.0	22	7	5	1	5	19	1.56	.262
2010	MB	CAR	6	6	4.15	22	18	0	0	2	112.2	123	59	52	7	18	107	1.19	.279
2010	Minors		6	8	3.78	26	22	0	0	2	135.2	145	66	57	8	23	126	1.24	.276
2011	MIS	SOU	9	9	3.74	21	21	1	0	0	127.2	119	65	53	6	42	93	0.85	.249
2011	CC	TEX	2	3	5.27	6	6	0	0	0	27.1	28	16	16	3	10	28	1.08	.267
2011	Minors		11	12	4.01	27	27	1	0	0	155.0	147	81	69	9	52	121	0.89	.253
2012	CC	TEX	5	3	4.21	13	13	0	0	0	77.0	81	41	36	11	21	68	1.62	.267
2012	OKC	PCL	5	7	4.52	15	15	0	0	0	89.2	105	48	45	13	19	69	0.94	.292
2012	Minors		10	10	4.37	28	28	0	0	0	166.2	186	89	81	24	40	137	1.20	.281
2013	OKC	PCL	0	2	9.49	3	3	0	0	0	12.1	18	18	13	3	4	6	1.29	.327
2013	Minors		0	2	9.49	3	3	0	0	0	12.1	18	18	13	3	4	6	1.29	.327

Drafted in the 8th round by Atlanta, Oberholtzer is the final piece of the Michael Bourn trade to reach the Majors in an Astros uniform. Two of the others have already moved on (Jordan Schafer and Juan Abreu), but the third, Paul Clemens, is off to a fine start in 2013. A durable innings eater, Oberholtzer pitches in the low 90s with four pitches at his disposal. His command is average, but he lives in the strikes zone and doesn't issue a lot of free passes.